CPI, PPI and price increase pressure

While industrial production value in the first quarter of 2010 increased by 13.6% over the same period, the value added of this industry only increased by 5.65%. This shows that the efficiency of industrial production is at a low level. At the production briefing last weekend, when looking at these two numbers and the rather high difference, nearly 8 percentage points, the Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment said that costs are "overwhelming". ” the added value that the industry brings.

Sharing the same opinion as his leaders, Director Bui Ba Cuong noted that sellers are having a "hole in their pockets" due to input costs rising higher than selling prices. Mr. Cuong made the above statement based on comparing the producer price index (PPI) with the consumer price index (CPI). "Low production efficiency due to rising costs, this also has its reasons." Director Cuong explained that if the average CPI in the first quarter of 2010 increased by 8.51% compared to the first quarter of 2009, then the agricultural PPI over the same period increased by 11.6%, and the general industrial PPI increased by 9.4%. %, while crude oil PPI increased by 45.6%. That means input prices (PPI) have increased faster than selling prices (CPI), so producers are bearing a higher cost increase than the increase in selling prices, Mr. Cuong concluded.

Since March 1, many production input materials and fuels have increased their selling prices, such as the price of coal (sold for electricity) increased by up to 47% depending on the type, the price of electricity increased by 6.8%, and the price of water (HCMC) increased by about 50%. In addition, the prices of gas, cement, iron and steel... have also increased recently. Meanwhile, only oil prices will decrease on March 3, which is said to help reduce consumer prices by about 0.053%, according to calculations by the Ministry of Finance.

Regarding monetary reasons, loan interest rates have been applied through an agreement mechanism. Although there are no specific statistics on the average level of loan interest rates, much information indicates that there are loan contracts with interest rates of up to 20%/year. From another perspective, if compared to the target set by the National Assembly in 2010 of total means of payment and credit growth controlled at 25%, then in the first two months of the year, only the total means of payment keep within this level.

Credit growth in January 2010 reached 38%, in February still increased approximately 37% over the same period. Meanwhile, credit growth for the whole year 2009 was 37.73%, Mr. Cuong continued to note. According to information announced by the State Bank, credit growth in February began to increase again, reaching 1.14%, while in January it only increased by 0.26%.

Overall, credit growth is estimated to increase by 1.4% compared to December 2009. It will be difficult for sellers to "endure" the discrepancy between CPI and PPI for a long time. In the following months, the push for CPI may be greater, to be closer to PPI input prices, Mr. Cuong said.

According to Vneconomy