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11/01/2024

August CPI will only increase about 0.2%?

The consumer price index (CPI) in August will only increase by about 0.2% compared to the previous month. On the afternoon of August 18, a leader of the Price Management Department (Ministry of Finance) made the above forecast to the press.

The basis for the number given by this position is the market situation of some essential goods, which this agency has just updated in its report for the first 15 days of August, which is equivalent to the time when the General Statistics Office finalized the number. CPI calculation data for this month.

Previously, in an analysis of Vietnam's macroeconomics, Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, Vice Chairman of the National Financial Supervisory Commission, said that although food prices have increased due to natural disasters in many countries, and gasoline prices have just been adjusted to increase from August 9, it is expected that in In the last two months of the second quarter, prices have not had any negative changes and inflation in August and September will increase by about 0.3%/month.

Thus, the latest forecasts are almost similar in that it will be difficult for the consumer price index to maintain a low increase like in July, only 0.06% compared to the previous month, but will still continue to be stable. at 0.2-0.3% even though there have been causes affecting the prices of consumer goods and services.

Considering the main causes affecting the CPI in August, it emerged that the processing industry inventory index as of July 1, 2010 had increased quite high, at 38.6% compared to the same period of August. last year, while the corresponding consumption index increased only 12%.

This correlation shows that consumption of some types of goods is facing difficulties and supply and demand can only be balanced at lower prices, in theory.

Meanwhile, according to Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, since the beginning of July, foreign currency scarcity began to appear, combined with the situation of businesses collecting USD to pay for due loans, causing the price of greenback on the free market to begin to escape. price in the official market.

According to the Price Management Department, in the first 15 days of August alone, the VND/USD exchange rate increased from 40-60 VND/USD. This will certainly affect the prices of some imported goods, including household appliances and equipment, medicines...

Also related to the devaluation of VND compared to USD, plus the increase in world prices, on August 9, domestic gasoline prices were adjusted to increase from 190-410 VND/liter depending on type. Because the time of gasoline price increase is quite close to the CPI data closing date, the possibility of impact from this price increase on the August index is not large.

Steel billet prices in August on the world market also recorded a sharp increase, from 50-90 USD/ton compared to July, pushing domestic finished steel prices up an average of 300-500 VND/kg compared to July. 2010. But on the contrary, the price of LPG has decreased by about 9-9.25 thousand VND/tank because prices on the world market have continued to decline for many months...

With domestically produced products, it is worth noting the change in rice prices in the southern provinces. Rice exports in July set a record of over 853 thousand tons, according to the General Department of Customs, with prices increasing from 10-20 USD/ton (5% broken rice), pushing rice prices in the South up by 400-700 USD/ton. VND/kg in only the first 15 days of August.

Accounting for nearly 40% of the weight in the CPI basket of goods, food is definitely the commodity group that has a major impact on this month's price index.

In the food group, pork prices have decreased by 2-5 thousand VND/kg in the South due to the impact of the epidemic, while in the North remains stable. Alternative foods such as beef and chicken maintain stable prices.

Among the commodities with strong price fluctuations, cement has decreased by 35 thousand VND/ton in the Northern provinces, and decreased by up to 140 thousand VND/ton in the South, due to abundant supply and difficult consumption...

In the short term, the Price Management Department forecasts that rice prices will increase due to increased world market demand; Steel prices increased due to the impact of billet prices on the world market; Liquefied petroleum gas may not decrease but instead increase slightly due to the need to store before winter in Europe; Prices of some pork substitutes may increase slightly; While world gasoline prices may decrease...

According to Vneconomy